Empty Chair At Debate? (by Will Sheehy)

As many of you may know, Donald Trump will not be attending the debate hosted by Fox News this Thursday, January 28. This is a bold move, and nobody is sure what is to come from this aggressive action. There is much speculation about what Fox will do and how they will respond. Some people think that Fox should put an empty podium where Trump would usually stand. Others believe that Fox will do nothing and pretend that Trump does not exist. Some of my thoughts on this boycott are 1. Fox should put a dummy of trump in a seat in the middle of the stage and 2. This is a big chance for the rest of the Republican party to attack Trump without having him there to defend himself. When I was watching CNN on the 26th, they said that it is against the GOP rules to put an empty chair on the debate stage. But, if the chair has a dummy sitting in it, is it still declared empty? (Debate rules state that empty chairs or podiums should not be shown)

Duel of the Democrats in Iowa (by Oliver Munakash)

Bernie Sanders pulls ahead of Clinton for the first time in Iowa while O’Malley is out of the race.  According to realclearpolitics.com Sanders is ahead of Clinton by .2 percent.  As we get closer to the Iowa Caucuses will Sanders be able to pull through and win Iowa or will Clinton find ways to get ahead of Sanders?  If Sanders wins the Caucuses it could boost his national poll numbers by a significant amount.  In my opinion Sanders has the upper hand in the Caucuses.  Right now he has the momentum on his side even though his losing by a lot in national polls.  If Sanders keeps gaining at the rate I think he can win the nomination.

– Oliver Munakash

Taking Notes To Inform Your Votes: KidUnity Covers the Iowa Caucuses (By the 6th Grade Students in KidUnity)

Taking Notes To Inform Your Votes: KidUnity Covers the Iowa Caucuses

By the 6th Grade Students in KidUnity

KidUnity sixth graders have been studying the 2016 presidential election in preparation for a trip to the Iowa Caucuses. On Saturday, January 30 KidUnity will travel to Des Moines and spend three days witnessing and participating in this historic event as student journalists.

To prepare for our exciting trip we have attended amazing workshops that have included meetings with Gov. Michael Dukakis (Democratic Presidential candidate in 1988) and Jessica Yellin (former CNN White House correspondent). We have held straw polls, researched issues, and created committees to plan all aspects of our trip. We cannot wait to get there this Saturday!

In Iowa we hope to interview presidential candidates and possibly even the future President.  We will meet with journalists and elected officials. KidUnity also will attend the Caucuses and participate in some fun festivities at the same time.

These Caucuses are important because they provide a hint of what will come in this presidential election year. Iowa is the first state to vote, is the first test for the candidates, and gets the most attention in the presidential process. Our coverage of this event as student journalists is crucial because there is so much propaganda in politics and a too many voters are not well educated about the candidates and their policies. Our sixth grade is the next generation of voters and we want to be as educated and involved as possible.  As first-hand observers –  interviewing the candidates, Iowans, journalists, and local politicians – we will have a great experience and become good citizens. KidUnity is building community!  We hope you will follow us in Iowa at our blog (kidunity.edublogs.org.) or on twitter (@kidunity).

“Defeat Cruz!” says Iowa Gov!

With Cruz cruising in Iowa’s polls, dramatic news today from Iowa’s eminence grise!  “Defeat Cruz!” says Iowa’s Gov. Why?  Because Cruz has been tepid on ethanol, a corn-based product.  And what fuel’s Iowa’s economy?  Yep, corn!

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/19/branstad-says-he-wants-cruz-defeated-iowa/79003590/

In other news, former VP candidate Sarah Palin endorses Trump. Will this also tip Tea Party Conservatives away from Cruz?

More details here: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html?_r=0

Finally, the latest polls out of New Hampshire show Sanders pulling away by 27%!

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/19/bernie-sanders-widens-lead-over-hillary-clinton-in-new-hampshire/

Will Iowa turn into a slug fest?!  Will New Hampshire turn the tide to Sanders?! Stay tuned…

Bad news for Dems next November?

“The share of Americans identifying as Democrats dropped to a record low in 2015, according to the latest Gallup results published Monday, in the latest indication that Americans’ attachment to either political party is at or nearing historical lows.

Overall, 42 percent over the course of the past year identified as independents, a slight drop from the 43 percent who identified as such in 2014. While Democrats maintained a small advantage over Republicans — 29 percent to 26 percent — the Democratic share is at its lowest in Gallup history.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/poll-political-party-identify-217562#ixzz3wxtxwiWF

Iowa Horse Race!

Poll: Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire

“Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State.

What’s more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New Hampshire, while Trump has built a 16-point lead in the same state.” (NBC News)

Michael Dukakis and 1988

On Monday the KidUnity Iowa team will meet with Mike Dukakis. They are a little familiar with his failed campaign but I am hoping that they will sit down and watch this documentary – Above the Fray

“he seemed like a man genetically incapable of mounting a defense and engaging in a political fight.  It wasn’t just the tank.  It was a wholesale refusal to have anything that resembled a campaign strategy. Dukakis, who essentially narrates his own political decline, admits as much in this excellent documentary.

“We didn’t do what, I’m sorry to say, you have to do in these campaigns, and that’s one of the great lessons of ’88, sadly, and that is you’ve got to anticipate an attack campaign and you’ve got to have a carefully thought-out strategy for dealing with it in advance of when it happens,” he said. “Preferably one that frankly turns it into a character issue on the guy that’s doing the attacking.” (WashPo)

Is 2016 like 2000?

“The 2016 Democratic race looks similar to the 2000 primary, when Al Gore had a lot of endorsements, a national polling lead near 20 percentage points and a similar Iowa advantage and trailed liberal challenger Bill Bradley by a few percentage points in New Hampshire. Gore ended up pulling away in Iowa and winning New Hampshire and every primary afterward. The weight of the party was too much for Bradley to bear, as it may be for Sanders.

Or maybe the past will not be predictive. Sanders, like Trump, may end up proving that support from party officials doesn’t mean what it used to, especially in the early contests. We’ll just have to wait and see.”  (538.com)

Where Does Trump get his support?

“He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.” (NYT)

 

Then there’s this take on it – “One way to understand Trump’s longevity is to look more closely at his supporters. Trump’s backers tend to be whiter, slightly older and less educated than the average Republican voter. But perhaps more importantly, his supporters have shown signs of being misinformed. Political science research has shown that the behavior of misinformed citizens is different from those who are uninformed, and this difference may explain Trump’s unusual staying power.” (538 Politics)